Herd Immunity Won’t Come Easy Though
Like most things pandemic-related, herd immunity comes with a question mark or two.
“In particular, we don’t yet know how long vaccine-induced immunity will last. The natural immunity acquired after infection seems to last for several months, and the expectation is that the immunity conferred via vaccination will last even longer. But we don’t know exactly how long yet,” explains Dr. Drews. “This is one of the major reasons that it will be important to continue wearing a mask after being vaccinated, as well as practicing the other preventive measures we’ve used to keep our communities safe during this pandemic.”
And it’s not just questions, there are challenges, too.
“There are logistical hurdles to vaccinating 248+ million people. In addition, many people are still skeptical about these vaccines, and misinformation is adding to this fear,” says Dr. Drews.
But, with Delta variant cases on the rise especially among the unvaccinated it’s time for the entire herd to come together to help to end this pandemic by getting vaccinated.
Remember, to this virus, there are no sqauds, no crews, no pods only one big herd. And herd immunity, by way of vaccination, is what we need to help keep our squads, crews, pods and fams safe.
Vaccine Development: Vaccines Approved For Use And In Clinical Trials
The speed at which the first COVID-19 vaccines were developed was extraordinary. We have previously looked into the history of vaccine development. The measles vaccine was found relatively rapidly: it took only 10 years from the discovery of the pathogen to the development of the first vaccine. But for typhoid it took more than a century, and for some diseases for which weve known the pathogens for more than a century we still havent found an effective vaccine.
The development of a vaccine against COVID-19 has been much faster than the development of any other vaccine. Within less than a year several successful vaccines have already been announced and were approved for use in some countries.
The hope is that even more manufacturers develop vaccines for COVID-19. This will be important because eventually a very large share of the world population needs to receive a COVID-19 vaccine.
We are on the way to several vaccines against COVID-19 vaccine trackers monitor the progress:
Several institutions maintain websites on which they list COVID-19 candidate vaccines that are currently being developed:
|Oxford/AstraZeneca, Sinopharm/Beijing, Sinovac, Sputnik V|
How Many People In San Juan County Have Received A Covid
- 70% of people in San Juan County have received at least one dose of the vaccine, for a total of 89,216 people
- 59% of people in San Juan County are fully vaccinated, for a total of 74,823 people
For a county-by-county look at the vaccination rollout, see our COVID-19 vaccine tracker, which is updated daily.
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Unvaccinated Adults Younger Less Educated
Adults who had not received any doses of the COVID vaccine differed from those who had received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine across several measures.
- They were younger, on average, than those who had been vaccinated. Roughly 75% of the unvaccinated were under age 50. Among the vaccinated, less than half were under age 50.
- They had lower levels of education, on average, than those who were vaccinated. Survey respondents who had received at least one dose were twice as likely as the unvaccinated to have a college degree or higher.
- They were much less likely than vaccinated adults to be married .
Least Vaccinated Us Counties Have Something In Common: Trump Voters
About 31 percent of adults in the United States have now been fully vaccinated. Scientists have estimated that 70 to 90 percent of the total population must acquire resistance to the virus to reach herd immunity. But in hundreds of counties around the country, vaccination rates are low, with some even languishing in the teens.
The disparity in vaccination rates has so far mainly broken down along political lines. The New York Times examined survey and vaccine administration data for nearly every U.S. county and found that both willingness to receive a vaccine and actual vaccination rates to date were lower, on average, in counties where a majority of residents voted to re-elect former President Donald J. Trump in 2020. The phenomenon has left some places with a shortage of supply and others with a glut.
For months, health officials across the United States have been racing to inoculate people as variants of the coronavirus have continued to gain a foothold, carrying mutations that can make infections more contagious and, in some cases, deadlier. Vaccinations have sped up and, in many places, people are still unable to book appointments because of high demand. In Michigan, where cases have spiraled out of control, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, recently urged President Biden to send additional doses.
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How We Conducted This Study
To evaluate the impact of the vaccination program in the United States, the researchers expanded their age-stratified, agent-based model of COVID-19 to include waning of naturally acquired or vaccine- elicited immunity, as well as booster vaccination.6,7 For the timelines of this study, the characteristics of three variants were included in the model, each with cumulative prevalence of at least 3 percent in the U.S., including B.1.526 , B.1.1.7 , and B.1.617.2 in addition to the original Wuhan-I SARS-CoV-2 strain.
The model parameters included the population demographics of the U.S., an empirically determined contact network accounting for pandemic mobility patterns, and age-specific risks of severe health outcomes due to COVID-19. The model incorporated data on daily vaccine doses administered in the U.S.8 The minimum age eligibility for vaccination was 16 years before May 13, 2021, after which children 12 to 15 became eligible for vaccination. Vaccination of children ages 5 to 11 with Pfizer-BioNTech started on November 2, 2021.
Vaccine efficacies against infection and symptomatic and severe disease for different vaccine types for each variant and by time since vaccination were drawn from published estimates. The model was calibrated to reported national incidence data between October 1, 2020, and November 30, 2021, and validated with infection, hospitalization, and death trends during the same period.
Nyc Ballet Cancels All Remaining Performances Of The Nutcracker Due To Covid
From CNN’s Sahar Akbarzai
The New York City Ballet announced it will cancel all remaining performances of George Balanchines The Nutcracker, through Jan. 2, 2022, due to Covid-19 concerns, according to an announcement on the organizations website on Tuesday.
The Nutcracker has been performed by the NYCB every holiday season in New York City since its premiere in February 1954, with the exception of the 2020 season, during which all performances were canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Performing our beloved holiday tradition live on our home stage this season has brought us much joy, but as has been the case throughout the pandemic, we remain committed to the health and safety of our audiences, artists, and staff, a tweet from the New York City Ballet states.
The Nutcracker was originally scheduled to be performed from Nov. 26 to Jan. 2 with a total of 47 performances at Lincoln Center in New York City. All audience members were required to be fully-vaccinated and to wear masks during performances, the New York City Ballet said.
The ballet company said it looks forward to welcoming guests back at the Lincoln Center for future performances.
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There Are Vast Numbers Of People Who Are Outright Opposed To Vaccines
The most challenging group to vaccinate, and the largest, are those ideologically opposed to Covid-19 vaccines. A July poll by the Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that among unvaccinated people, 35 percent said they probably would not get vaccinated, while 45 percent said they definitely would not. And refusal is closely tied to political views.
The group that really hasnt changed over time are those in that definitely not or only if required groups, said Kirzinger. Theyre largely white there are loads of white evangelical Christians, they live in rural areas, they lean Republican, and they havent changed their minds.
The reasons people give for refusing vaccines vary: They dont think Covid-19 is a big deal, they believe conspiracy theories about vaccines, they think the side effects and risks outweigh the benefits, they resent being told what to do. The varying reasons make it harder to come up with a broad-based appeal to get vaccinated.
Pressure tactics and vaccine requirements may end up being counterproductive, fueling more resistance. I do think there could also be a backlash against mandates, Kirzinger said.
The minority of Americans who arent getting vaccinated are affecting the whole country. As such, it behooves everyone to work toward making Covid-19 vaccines as cheap, easy, nonpartisan, and popular as possible.
What Would It Take To Continue Increasing Covid
Vaccination is a critical element of the public health response to Covid-19, but in the US, getting a shot is seen as a personal decision. To understand these choices, its important to distinguish between apathy, hesitancy, refusal, and access issues, since these reasons affect what tactics are most effective at getting more people vaccinated.
, chair of the family and community medicine department at Temple University, explained that her interactions with patients revealed three kinds of concerns about Covid-19 vaccines: anxiety about safety and side effects, religious beliefs against vaccines, and perceptions of personal risk from Covid-19.
Among those who are hesitant or currently refusing vaccination, many can be convinced, but it does take finesse and engaging with their values. There is a tendency to dismiss the concerns and questions as if they are not valid and important, Savoy said in an email. That is a mistake.
Some of the people who are concerned about vaccines are also worried about the risks from Covid-19 and are taking the threat seriously, wearing masks and social distancing, Savoy added.
Others perceive Covid-19 to be far less of a threat, in part because the pandemic hasnt struck every part of the country in the same way. Wyoming, for instance, has vaccinated just over one-third of its population, but the state also dodged some of the worst impacts of the pandemic and began to relax sooner than most.
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Map: How Many People Have Been Vaccinated In Each State
States prioritized at-risk populations to be vaccinated first, including medical staff, people in nursing homes or other long-term care facilities, essential workers, the elderly and people with medical conditions that put them at greater risk of becoming seriously ill with COVID-19.
Any person age 5 and older in the U.S. is now eligible to receive a COVID-19 vaccine.
Household Pulse Survey Shows Many Dont Trust Covid Vaccine Worry About Side Effects
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that as of December 14, roughly 85% of adults ages 18 and over in the United States had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine but 15% remained unvaccinated.
Who are the unvaccinated and why are they choosing not to get a COVID vaccine?
About 42% reported that they dont trust the COVID-19 vaccine.
According to the U.S. Census Bureaus newest phase of the experimental Household Pulse Survey , those who were unvaccinated against COVID in early December 2021, reported a variety of reasons why.
“Vaccinated” here refers to adults who have received at least one dose of any COVID vaccine, and “unvaccinated” refers to adults who have not received any.
Unvaccinated adults who responded to the survey could select more than one reason:
- About half reported that they were concerned about possible side effects of the vaccine.
- About 42% reported that they dont trust the COVID-19 vaccine.
- Less than 10% reported that they hadnt gotten the vaccine because their doctor had not recommended it.
- About 2% reported not getting the vaccine because of difficulty obtaining it.
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Daily Reported Doses Given By Manufacturer
Each line shows the seven-day average.
In December 2020, federal regulators gave emergency use authorization to two-dose vaccines developed by Pfizer and Moderna. Regulators authorized Johnson & Johnsons one-dose vaccine in February, but recommended a pause in its use on April 13 because of reports of blood clots in a small number of patients. All 50 states paused or recommended that providers pause those vaccinations. The government ended the Johnson & Johnson pause on April 23, clearing the way for states to resume vaccinations.
On Aug. 12, regulators gave emergency use authorization for people with weakened immune systems to get a third dose of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, and expanded that authorization in September and October to include booster shots for many Americans.
On Aug. 23, the federal government approved the Pfizer vaccine for those 16 and older, the first full approval of a Covid-19 vaccine in the country.
The F.D.A. cleared the Pfizer vaccine for children, ages 5 to 11, on Oct. 29. Emergency use authorization of the vaccine continues for those ages 5 to 15 and for those receiving additional doses.
What We’re Covering Here
- The US reached a seven-day average of 254,496 new Covid-19 cases on Tuesday, the highest this number has ever been over the course of the pandemic, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
- Several European countries such as France, the UK, Italy, and Portugal are also seeing a large increase in daily new cases, many even setting new pandemic records.
- Meanwhile, many Latin American countries now reporting higher vaccination rates than Europe and North America.
Our live coverage has ended. Read the latest here.
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How Would Differing Assumptions Affect These Results
Changing selected assumptions in our analysis could reduce or increase the estimates we report here. For example, our model assumes that the reopening of businesses and schools, along with the increase in social gatherings that occurred during summer 2021, continued despite the Delta wave. If people had restricted social activities and travel, or businesses or schools had closed in response to the Delta surge, many deaths and hospitalizations could have been averted even in the absence of vaccination. However, it seems unlikely that the entire nation would have returned to the restrictions imposed during the first year of the pandemic.
Conversely, the number of deaths estimated by the model may be too low if hospital capacity were exceeded . Moreover, the model estimates only death attributable to COVID-19. Preventable deaths due to other causes would have increased too, as occurred early in the pandemic in cities like New York City and Los Angeles.5
Cdc Investigating 86 Cruise Ships For Covid
From CNNs Kay Jones
At least 86 cruise ships are being investigated for Covid-19 outbreaks by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, while another three are being monitored after reporting positive cases onboard.
The CDCs website shows that 86 ships are being investigated for coronavirus outbreaks under the yellow status while another three ships have orange status, which means they have reported Covid-19 cases on board but do not meet the agencys threshold for investigation at this point.
Yellow status for cruise ships under the CDC guidelines means that at least one of the following criteria are being met: at or above the investigation threshold for crew COVID-19 cases at or above the investigation threshold for passenger COVID-19 cases or state or local health department notified CDC of passenger COVID-19 cases occurring within 5 days of disembarkation.
No ships are in the red status area, which the CDC classifies as at or above the CDC investigation threshold for passenger and crew.
The color-coding system is for foreign-flagged cruise ships operating in US waters, the CDC says.
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Is There Enough Vaccine
Currently, the Pfizer-BioNTech, Oxford-AstraZeneca, Moderna and one-shot Janssen vaccines are approved for use throughout the UK.
Others, such as those produced by Novavax and Valneva, have not yet been given the green light.
The UK had ordered more than 540 million doses of seven of the most promising vaccines, including the four so far approved for use.
In addition, the government has now signed deals to buy 114 million more doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to use in 2022 and 2023.
French vaccine maker Valneva said the UK government had scrapped a deal for 100m doses of its vaccine, which is yet to be approved.
*Note on map data: Booster analysis must be viewed with caution as towns and cities tend to have younger populations who have had access to second jabs and boosters for a shorter amount of time. This means these areas may have a lower percentage uptake for logistical reasons compared with parts of the country with older populations.
Vaccine Certification Must Balance Convenience With Accessibility And Privacy
As vaccine requirements and incentives linked to vaccination become commonplace, certification will become more important, as will efforts to ensure that certification tools are widely accessible. Although they are often referred to as vaccine passports, vaccine credentials exist primarily to document vaccination status, not authorize travel. At least 17 private companies are developing digital vaccine credential systems, and New York state has launched an Excelsior Pass, an application developed by IBM. Meanwhile, at least six states have banned or limited the use of vaccine passports. While the United States seems unlikely to have a national credentialing system, with so many independent efforts emerging, the government should consider providing guidance on privacy and other key issues for these nongovernmental efforts.
Lastly, entities using vaccine credentials should bear in mind that vaccination, while highly effective, does not reduce the risk of COVID-19 to zero and that transmission in the United States remains high. Like New Yorks Excelsior Pass, credentialing initiatives should encourage users to follow CDC protocols for social distancing and face coverings. Employers, sporting venues, airlines, and others must continue to engage in risk mitigation to protect the unvaccinated.
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